ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Please read our latest newsletters.
16 November 2021
Inflation and reforms
And then, it finally happened… Inflation in the developed world erupted. Germany’s inflation came in at 4.5% in October, whereas inflation in the United States (US) rocketed to a 30-year-high of 6.2%. In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England warned consumers that inflation could breach 5% in 2022.
9 November 2021
Load shedding, pills, and jobs
A few years back we set out to estimate the economic cost of load shedding in South Africa (SA). Because our focus was purely on the economic side, we excluded the social costs associated with load shedding, which would, of course, have inflated our findings.
3 November 2021
Spending, taxes, and volatility
Democrats in the United States (US) will do what Democrats do, that is, spend more (mostly on the “not rich”) and tax more (mostly on the “rich”). In the past, we discussed the proposed $1.75 trillion infrastructure plans that President Joe Biden has, as a clever way of increasing the long-term returns (gross domestic product (GDP) growth) of the US economy.
26 October 2021
Pandemic stimulus and interest rates
Recently published research showed that pandemic stimulus failed in emerging markets. Among the top emerging and developed economies, there is no correlation between the stimulus programmes of 2020 and the strength of the ensuing recovery. The disconnect was, however, the largest among emerging markets.
19 October 2021
Markets calm down as Bitcoin starts to surge
Last week, markets were concerned about the persistent nature of higher-than-expected inflation, its implications for tighter monetary policy, and the eventual negative impact of tighter monetary policy on financial markets.
12 October 2021
The United States economy and global energy prices
Given the recent deceleration in COVID-19 cases and the pickup in activity indicators, we believe that the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow through with their planned taper announcement at the upcoming policy meeting in November.
6 October 2021
September economics
Something we try to do as economists is to observe and to report on shifts in long-term trends. This is
an important task because it can help individuals and businesses to make better long-term decisions.
21 September 2021
Economic activity and the Fed’s pending decision
Last week’s economic activity data reinforced our feeling that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa (SA) will remain subdued, and that we are still some distance away from pre-pandemic levels.
14 September 2021
How South Africa can get out of the poverty trap
Last week, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported on South Africa’s (SA’s) second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). We were glad to see that GDP growth came in better than expected.
7 September 2021
As the world slows down, the rand strengthens
More and more data from major economies in the Northern Hemisphere is showing that economic recoveries have started to lose steam. This is evident from both survey and hard-activity data that were released during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer break.
1 September 2021
August Economics
Markets in the United States (US) continued to reach new all-time highs in August. In fact, US equity valuations are now nearly as high as they were just before the dot-com meltdown. However, this by no means implies that we are heading in the same direction.
24 August 2021
South Africa’s Fiscal Multiplier
During the past week or so, there has been considerable talk about South Africa’s (SA’s) fiscal multiplier, a ratio that illustrates by how much output rises for each level of government spending.
17 August 2021
More positive indicators and local policy amendments
Last week another collection of positive economic indicators emerged from the United States (US). Many more experts have, therefore, voiced the opinion that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might start to curb their monetary support by the end of 2021.
11 August 2021
Goldilocks growth and a new cabinet
The United States’ (US) second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was disappointing, coming in at 6.5% instead of the expected 8.5%. However, the US has in fact now recovered from its largest peak-to-trough fall in output on record.
3 August 2021
July economics Chinese regulations and inflation
In a recent newsletter, I briefly mentioned our concern around regulatory uncertainty in
China. In July, however, this became one of our main themes after the MSCI China, a broad
index that tracks the Chinese equity market, fell by 18.8%.
27 July 2021
The latest economic news from the United States and South Africa
In the United States (US), inflation, once again, surprised to the upside. Compared to June 2020, headline inflation increased to 5.4% in June 2021, up from May’s 5.0%.
20 July 2021
A subjective view of South Africa’s long-term trajectory
How you interpret the world around you and, subsequently, forecast what may be, is based on your worldview. Your worldview is, to a large extent, shaped by your external environment (experiences and exposure) and your internal thoughts and emotions
13 July 2021
What a world we live in: falling oil prices and spending less time working
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with their new ally, Russia, have, once again, been unable to reach an agreement about global oil supply.
6 July 2021
International tax, interesting stories, and some jail time
Last week officials from 130 countries, representing 90% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), met virtually to agree on the broad outlines of what would be the most sweeping change in international taxation in a century.
29 June 2021
June Economics
During June, the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations in the United States (US) continued. A $1.2 trillion plan initially emerged from the two parties, which set out additional infrastructure spending close to $600 billion.
22 June 2021
US interest rates and some more good news locally
Last week United States (US) markets closed the week in negative territory: the Dow Jones fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%.
15 June 2021
Inflation, TV gaming, and growth
Press reports seem to suggest that United States (US) senators have reached some kind of a bipartisan agreement about President Jo Biden’s infrastructure proposal.
8 June 2021
The true story about unemployment in South Africa
This week we look at the newly released unemployment statistics for South Africa and how they show the cost of having an ineffective government.
1 June 2021
May economics
The month of May was as volatile as we expected it to be. We look at some of the events that influenced all types of markets.
25 May 2021
Less and more accommodation
While the US is talking about reducing accommodative monetary policy, interest rates in SA remain
unchanged. What does this mean for the markets?
18 May 2021
This week we look at the recent spike in the COVID-19 infection rate and how this has affected markets.
Last week we discussed how the US economy compounded its way to greatness. This week we focuson some of the latest economic and corporate figures to see what they tell us about the US and China
recovery.
11 May 2021
Less accommodative and more good news
The United States posted some surprising job figures and South Africa seems to be cleaning house. This week we look at what this means for the markets.
5 May 2021
April for America
April showcased everything that is great about the United States.
20 April 2021
“Never bet against the US economy” – Warren Buffett
Last week we discussed how the US economy compounded its way to greatness. This week we focuson some of the latest economic and corporate figures to see what they tell us about the US and China
recovery.
13 April 2021
An ode to America: the greatest country in the world?
This week we look at the American economy and how it has compounded its way to greatness.
7 April 2021
March economics: some nasties and some not
The month of March started with a few unwanted surprises. We discuss the impact of these on the
markets.
30 March 2021
European capex and local interest rates
This week we discuss European capex and what this might mean for the markets.
24 March 2021
Us Economic Success And Turkish Presidential Failings
Our main story this week is the recent announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve, Fed for short.
9 March 2021
The world around us and the concerns over inflation
This week we look at seemingly separate events around the world that are assimilating into inflationary
concerns.
2 March 2021
February Economics – The Budget and its implications for transformational change
Tito delivered his budget speech in the last week of February. We are optimistic about what it seems to mean for transformational change in South Africa.
23 February 2021
The pillars of hope that enforce transformational change
Economic-related forecasts are almost impossible. But this week we aim to provide you with our best
attempts!
16 February 2021
Government’s lack of integrity and some numbers
In this week’s newsletter we discuss the SONA and focus on the breakdown in integrity of the South African government. We also explain how each citizen contributes to this breakdown. We
end with some important economic numbers.
9 February 2021
What to expect from petrol prices in 2021
I have not discussed petrol prices in a while, so I thought I would give you an update on what you can expect from oil prices in 2021. Hopefully, this will help you plan for the year ahead.
2 February 2021
January Economics
Considering how long it took for 2020 to finally come to an end, it seems like the first month of 2021 was over in the blink of an eye. Many interesting things happened, here are just a few highlights.
26 January 2021
Stiff-necked Americans and modern inflation
This week we discuss how the US missed out on a unique transformational opportunity to make America great again, and how inflation creeps up on you.
19 January 2021
Is your house in order?
This week we look at the impact a good wave or bad storm can have on the economy.
12 January 2021
Welcome to 2021
We start the new year by discussing a couple of world events that impacted the markets in December.